Olympic Basketball Arena
London, England
Time: Monday, 5:15 p.m. EDT
TV: NBC Sports Network
If Team USA was planning on dropping a game at any point in these Olympics, this would be the last acceptable time to do so. All the games have mattered up until this point, but once the knockout round begins on Wednesday, every time they step on the court becomes a win-or-go-home proposition. So if the Americans were going to no-show for a game, they should pick this one. Then again, there's also a No. 1 seed and an (ostensibly) easier path to the gold medal game on the line here, so it's probably best to just take care of business. That being said, Argentina is an elite team, ranked third in the world, and they hung right with Team USA a couple weeks ago in Barcelona. They are playing for seeding as well, so they likely won't be laying off. Any way you slice it, this will be a tight contest, so if you were planning on exhaling after that Lithuania game, don't do it just yet.
What To Watch For:
Three-point shooting. This is the single biggest determinant of Team USA's offensive performance on any given night. They attempt an average of 32.2 threes per game — a full nine attempts more than the next closest team. That is a lot of threes. If they're falling, the Americans simply cannot be beaten. (Just ask Nigeria or, to a lesser extent, Spain.) But if those long balls aren't hitting at a high rate — and considering that they're shooting only 34 percent as a team in their three non-Nigeria games in London, this seems more likely than not — they are eminently beatable. That's what we witnessed in the Lithuania game. After shooting a scorching 63 percent against Nigeria, the United States took 33 threes on Saturday. The problem? They only shot 30 percent against the Lithuanians, and ended up having to saddle up LeBron James to escape with a close win. As long as they allow long-distance shooting to comprise so much of their offensive attack, Team USA will continue to struggle when shots aren't falling. You can have all the talented players in the world, but if roughly 40 percent of your possessions end in contested, low-percentage shots, you're going to severely hamstring your effectiveness.
Who guards Manu? When these two teams mets a few weeks back in Barcelona, it quickly became very clear that the Americans had no answer for Manu Ginobili. He led the Argentinians with 23 points, and it felt like they all came to him relatively easily. Given this bit of not-so-distant history and Team USA's bizarre inability to cut off dribble penetration in recent games, it should be interesting to see what (if anything) coach Mike Krzyzewski decides to do in order to attempt to slow down Ginobili. Kobe Bryant will undoubtedly start on him, but as great a defender as Kobe has been over the course of his career, he's not quite on that level today at the ripe old age of 34. There are better options that Coach K should explore. In the Western Conference Finals, Russell Westbrook did a nice job of getting into Manu and denying him the ball everywhere on the court, so that could be one way to go if they want to be aggressive off the ball. Similarly, Andre Iguodala has the length and athleticism to really make things tough for Manu, even after the catch, potentially forcing him into tough shots. Granted, he'll probably still make a few of those tough shots, but that's why he's Manu. Team USA's job is to find a way to make his life as difficult as possible in the process.
Rim protection (or a lack thereof). Other than not being able to hit the broad side of a barn from behind the three-point line, Team USA's biggest problem against Lithuania was the lack of a shot-blocking presence around the rim. Time after time, a Lithuanian guard was get around his American defender on the perimeter, then seemingly glide to the hole unchallenged for free points. This is an unhappy side effect of Coach K's small-ball lineup. When he takes his lone big (Tyson Chandler) out of the game, he also removes the one deterrent Team USA has around the basket. So if the guards get beat on the outside, it's nothing but smooth sailing to the cup. There are two potential remedies to this situation: a) The American guards need to stop giving up dribble penetration (and I'm looking at you, Deron Williams); or b) Chandler — or, God forbid, Anthony Davis — needs to play more than 8 minutes a night. Until one (or both) of those things happen, there will continue to be a gaping hole in Team USA's defense.
Last game of pool play. Manu and company lining up on the other side. No. 1 seed on the line. We landed on Mars last night, we can do this. Go USA.
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