North Greenwich Arena
London, England
Time: Sunday, 10:00 a.m. EDT
TV: NBC
This is the big one. This is for a gold medal. Anything less will be considered an unmitigated failure. Are those expectations reasonable? Irrelevant. This is what we expect. This is why we came here. We invented this game — dominating the world is our birthright. And now Team USA only has one hurdle left in its way. Granted, that step is a pretty sizable one — the size of two 7-foot Gasol brothers, to be exact. Could the Americans find a way to lose to this Spanish team? Absolutely. Anything can happen on any given day when two exceptional basketball teams lace up their sneakers with the whole world watching. But will they? With LeBron James, Kobe Bryant, Kevin Durant, Chris Paul and all their cohorts chasing history and craving the legendary status that comes with winning gold? I wouldn't bet on it. But just in case, cross your fingers anyway.
What To Watch For:
A different Spain. This won't be the same Spanish team that the Americans faced in Barcelona a few weeks back. Spain made it pretty clear that they didn't open their bag of tricks for that exhibition, and Marc Gasol didn't even suit up. So don't be deceived by Team USA's 22-point victory in that one — this probably won't be a walk in the park. Both Gasols will likely pound the ball inside (often simultaneously), potentially creating serious matchup problems for the U.S. Other teams in this tournament have featured some size down low, but nowhere near the level of skill that Pau and Marc bring to the table, so it will be interesting to see if/how coach Mike Krzyzewski adjusts. Also worth watching: Serge Ibaka has spent a lot of time on the bench recently, much to the confusion of many observers. He absolutely had his way with Team USA in their initial meeting, going 8-for-10 for 16 points, so it would make sense for the Spaniards to go back to him in this one. Then again, it doesn't make much sense that the world's best shot-blocker (with a solid mid-range jumper!) isn't playing in the first place, so there may be no accounting for logic here.
Perimeter defense. This is Team USA's calling card, and it will be vital to their success against Spain. It's obvious that the Americans don't have the horses available inside to match up with the Gasols and Ibaka straight-up. It's just not going to happen. In order to counter that frontcourt disadvantage, Coach K will likely go small early and often, hoping to keep the ball out of the paint by pressuring the Spanish guards on the perimeter and making it difficult for them to initiate the offense. If Team USA executes this strategy to the full extent of its considerable abilities, they should be able to create tons of turnovers, keep the game at an accelerated pace that suits their style of play, and ultimately cruise to victory. If they lose focus and lack intensity as they are wont to do from time to time? Jose Calderon and Juan Carlos Navarro will repeatedly throw the ball into the post, Marc and Pau will punish their undersized defenders, and this will be a tight ballgame. That reality puts additional pressure on the United States' best perimeter defenders — Chris Paul, Russell Westbrook, Andre Iguodala, LeBron James — to bring the heat every time they step on the floor, and it may also necessitate some lineup changes by Krzyzewski. Don't be surprised if we see a little less of Deron Williams or Kevin Love than usual.
Leave nothing to chance. If you've watched the last few games, you've undoubtedly noticed that each has proceeded in a fairly familiar fashion: Team USA starts out a little slow, their opponent hangs around for awhile, then somebody — usually Melo, KD or Kobe — eventually catches fire and goes crazy, finally putting the game out of reach. It would be beneficial if that could happen again on Sunday, and it would be even better if it could happen sooner rather than later. As we saw in their semifinal win over Russia, Spain have already demonstrated the ability to hang around just long enough to eventually find a little opening and somehow snatch victory from the jaws of defeat. The longer the Americans allow them to hang around, the more their confidence will increase and the smaller Team USA's margin for error becomes. If you're Coach K, you want no part of that. You don't want your gold medal hopes resting on whether or not Kobe hits a ridiculously awesome four-point play at the end of the game. You want to jump on them early — you want to rip out their heart and stomp on it before they even get a chance to figure out what just happened. If you do that, you win by 20. If you don't, who knows what could happen in that fourth quarter this time around? Spain is just too good for the Americans to leave the outcome to chance. They shouldn't tempt fate — it may not favor them four years later.
Win this one and the 2012 team ranks right up there with the 1992 Dream Team as one of the best American teams ever. Lose and nothing they've done up until this point will matter. No pressure.
Go USA.
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